The 7th China-Australia High Level Dialogue will be held in Beijing on September 7. This is not just a momentous event between China and Australia, but also a reflection of the East-West relationship as a whole. As a 1.5-track high-level dialogue initiated in 2014, this exchange is a thermometer for China-Australia relations. The interruption of this dialogue in 2020 was widely regarded as a prominent sign of the sharp decline in bilateral relations. After the Albanese government came to power and began adjusting its policy toward China, China-Australia relations rebounded. The restart of this high-level dialogue is seen as a sign of further warming of China-Australia relations.
This is the outcome that we are all hoping for. If China and Australia can effectively manage their disagreements while maintaining and strengthening mutually beneficial cooperation in the current international circumstances, China can do the same with other Western countries. From this vantage point, China-Australia ties have far-reaching ramifications beyond bilateral relations.
The ups and downs of China-Australia relations, from initially positive to being impacted by external circumstances and the growth of radical anti-China forces within Australia, to a more pragmatic adjustment by the Labor Party government, are extremely representative. It is obvious that Australia is primarily to blame for this. Therefore, when the Australian government changed, China-Australia relations ushered in an opportunity for a turnaround. The detours taken by China-Australia relations serve as a lesson not only for Australia but also for other Western countries in how to handle their relations with China. It is essential to point out that most people who predict that China-Australia relations will improve are either Australians or members of Western public opinion. Although there is some optimism in China, it is cautious and constrained because expectations there are generally modest. This difference reflects the instability of trust between the two countries, and a "warming" without trust is difficult to sustain. We hope that at this moment of "restarting" bilateral relations, the Australian side should seriously listen to the thoughts of China, which is important for truly promoting the warming of bilateral relations.
From the perspective of the size and the composition of the Australian delegation, it is not hard to feel how much importance Canberra has attached to the restart of the dialogue. The large scale of personnel is uncommon compared to previous dialogues. The delegation is composed of representatives from both political parties, including former Labor trade minister Craig Emerson and former Liberal foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop, demonstrating the "political support" of both parties for this dialogue. The delegation members come from various sectors such as businesses, government, academia and media, all are familiar with China-Australia relations. We hope that the restart of this high-level dialogue also signifies the comprehensive restoration of the China-Australia strategic dialogue.
It is easier for things to slide downward than improve, the latter requires greater effort. It is the same in relations between countries. If we describe China-Australia ties as a student who started with score 80, yet the score has fallen to 40, we can say that the score improved a little now. Yet it is not enough. It requires more joint efforts from both China and Australia. It specifically requires Australia to overcome internal and external pressures to the greatest extent. Frankly speaking, Australia has not done enough in this regard and some mistakes are continuing.
Some Western countries, including the US, have repeatedly emphasized that they will not "decouple" from China while praising Australia as an "example" of "resisting Chinese coercion." The news of the high-level dialogue between China and Australia has received a lukewarm response from some Western media, which instead have been focusing on the country's new strategy to boost trade with Southeast Asia, proposed by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the ASEAN Summit, claiming that China's doubts are growing about the strategy. Australia has not withdrawn from the US strategy of containing China, nor has it shown such intentions. These pieces of information reflect the complexity of China-Australia relations.
One reality that both China and Australia need to face is that the urgent task of the current China-Australia relationship is to quickly reach a passing line. We have spoken enough to Australia in the past two years, but how much Australia can take in is not for us to decide. However, we have received Australia's sincerity in wanting to strengthen communication with China and will respond with goodwill. We hope that the high-level dialogue between China and Australia can achieve results beyond expectations.
After marathon negotiations, the G20 summit held in New Delhi, India, finally managed to reach a joint declaration on September 10, avoiding the embarrassment of a fruitless summit. The Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting and Foreign Ministers' Meeting hosted by India before the summit failed to produce a decent joint declaration, highlighting the significant differences in positions and opinions among the countries as well as the Indian government's struggle to deal with a divided world.
The joint declaration of this summit once again clarifies the positioning of the G20 as "the premier forum for international economic cooperation," and it states that "while the G20 is not the platform to resolve geopolitical and security issues, we acknowledge that these issues can have significant consequences for the global economy." G20 members have reached a consensus and invited the African Union (AU) to become a formal member of the mechanism. This can be seen as a "rectification" to counter the attempts by the US and the West to hijack the G20 summit agenda, as well as a response from developing countries and the Global South.
Despite the discontent in Ukraine and the difficulty of reaching consensus, Western diplomats were willing to "let through" the declaration's wording on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, probably believing it was a price worth paying. Aljazeera commented that "many Western countries, concerned about China's rising power, want New Delhi - a strategic counterweight to Beijing - to be able to claim this summit was a great success."
Inviting the AU to join the G20 is an important outcome of this summit. As the largest developing country and a member of the Global South, China was the first country to explicitly express its support for the AU's membership in the G20. Of course, India's efforts to include the AU may imply a calculation to win the support of African countries for India's bid for permanent membership in the UN Security Council.
Since taking over as the rotating chair of the G20 summit in December last year, the Modi administration has regarded the G20 summit as a "golden opportunity" to confirm India as a "global leading power." It also intends to turn this into a major diplomatic achievement domestically and use it as an opportunity for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to campaign for next year's general elections.
At the same time, India sees itself as a bridge between the "Global South" and the "Global West." The External Affairs Minister of India, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, said India has the potential to become "a bridge between the established and emerging orders."
However, India's dream of being a great power is idealistic, but the reality and setbacks it encounters are cruel. From the beginning, India has been under pressure from the US and the West, demanding condemnation of Russia at the G20 summit. New Delhi wants to maintain its special partnership with Moscow, while also trying to please the US and the West and act as the spokesperson for the "Global South." Meanwhile, the current administration wants to campaign for the BJP in next year's general elections. It is obvious that India expects too much from the G20 summit.
It is understandable that India wants to use the G20 summit stage to demonstrate its status as a major power and shape an international order that is favorable to itself.
However, the excessive political calculations and geopolitical considerations introduced into the G20 summit agenda have led to reduced expectations from relevant countries and have deprived the international community of an opportunity to concentrate on substantively addressing global challenges such as food and energy crises.
China and India have had good cooperation in many areas. However, in recent years, India has deliberately highlighted its differences with China in such areas as regional and global governance as well as sustainable development, with the intention of marginalizing China from the Global South community. New Delhi's practice of undermining developing countries' unity and cooperation and boosting itself by belittling other countries deserves vigilance. It is destined to be recorded in the history of the G20 New Delhi Summit and reflects the delusional side of India's dream of becoming a major power.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Arab region and world are already in the post-West and post-US era. The world order has been rapidly changing and multipolarity is becoming more and more a reality.
The rising power and growing influence of the developing nations, spearheaded by China, are shifting the world's center of gravity to the East and the South. The recent BRICS and G20 summits have amplified the voice of the Global Majority, more visibly showing the global power redistribution. The final communiques of both summits have reinforced the perception that no one single country or bloc of countries can dictate the terms of global consensus. Although the two summits' communiques used different terms, they both acknowledged the need to reform the global governance architecture, including Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and allow a larger representation for marginalized regions such as Africa. In both declarations, the Global South's perspective on the Ukraine conflict has prevailed.
Because of this grand rebalancing, the African Union (AU) has been added as a permanent member of the G20. This is also one important reason BRICS has been expanded to include additional six countries, three of which are from the Arab world. Just as the G20 expansion is not against anybody, but an attempt to make the grouping more representative of current global realities, the BRICS expansion is not against anybody, but an attempt to create more momentum behind the efforts to reform the global governance system so that it is more inclusive, equitable and democratic.
The Arabs are demonstrating their strategic autonomy by joining various partnerships established by seemingly opposing camps in the current intensifying great power rivalry. The Arab nations are joining BRICS, the Global South's leading platform, while simultaneously partnering with the West on India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a project that has been announced recently on G20 sidelines. Just as the Arabs' decision to join BRICS was not aimed against the West, but was based on national strategic objectives, their recent decision to sign Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the IMEC was not aimed against China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
There is an important difference between the BRI and the IMEC. The IMEC is an idea that is still being explored; it does not have concretely defined national commitments, scope, capital requirements and roles. On the other hand, the BRI is a mature program, which has proven its worth, bringing tangible benefits to its participants. The BRI is regaining momentum, thanks to serious contributions from China and its committed BRI partners; many BRI summits and events are held this year to mark the initiative's 10th anniversary. Regardless of who initiated them and how they will evolve in the future, the BRI and IMEC should be celebrated, not politicized or weaponized, because they are meant to enhance connectivity and facilitate global trade. How much positive impact they generate should be the only criterion for assessing those initiatives.
Multi-alignment and minilateralism are becoming the norm in the current fast-changing world. It is unwise to narrow-mindedly define the world in binary terms, "democracy versus authoritarianism" or "the West versus the rest". In the current fluid world order, most of the world, including the Arab region, is open to all kinds of partnerships and platforms that can serve their interests. India, for example, is an important member of BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO); at the same time, it is a member of the Quad, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD). Last August, India, Brazil and South Africa, the three "democratic members" of the BRICS, participated in the BRICS summit, which included China and Russia; less than three weeks later, the same three countries had a joint meeting with the US during the G20 summit.
The Arabs do not view their relations through an ideological prism; they are pragmatic, seeking partnerships based on mutual trust, respect, and benefit. The world is quickly adjusting to the reality that no one single country or bloc of countries can dictate the terms of multilateral partnerships and global governance. The Arabs are already adapting their regional and international behavior to this reality; no external pressure can change this fact.
The Arabs are joining different groups and platforms as equal partners, not as subordinates. Throughout their history and by virtue of their central geography, the Arabs have thrived on establishing relations with various regions and economic centers. Just like the Chinese, the Arabs are people of trade; they have been trading with each other and with others for thousands of years. As traders, it is natural and imperative for their success to build trust and win-win relations with the world. It is no wonder Arab-China trade is breaking records; last year, it reached more than $400 billion.
The global stage is becoming less welcoming to those who want to bring back hegemony and force others into subordinate positions. Those who think they should have superiority to all others economically, politically, culturally or otherwise, are using outdated mental models of a bygone era. Their sense of insecurity and lack of confidence about their own place in the world are pushing them to view their relations with others through the destructive zero-sum perspective. However, time, history, demographics and numbers are on the side of those who are working toward a multipolar world and those who are creating a multipolar Middle East. The two evolving orders are positively reinforcing each other.
The Arab world is going through a transition period, steered primarily by the Arabs themselves. The changes happening in the Arab world today do not represent a turning point or an abrupt regional transformation; it is an expected phase of an organic evolution. The region has been evolving since the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire, passing through European imperialism, surviving the US hegemony, and now arriving at a crucial historic juncture.
Just like the Chinese, Africans, Indians, Russians and most other peoples, the Arabs prefer a world that is multipolar where multilateralism can thrive, and unilateralism can be restricted. The Arabs are too wise and too strategic to pick sides; their neutral position on the Ukraine conflict and their positively expanding partnerships with different power centers illustrate their sophisticated understanding of the current tectonic power shifts.
The Arabs recognize that this is the era of active diplomacy and dynamic partnerships. For them, the world is becoming more complex, requiring agility and versatility; there is no place for binary or black-and-white thinking. After twenty years of wars and conflicts imposed on the region, the Arabs are regaining self-confidence and working strategically to secure their future in the emerging new world. They have developed enough human capital and technocratic capacity to be able to manage the delicate transition. The next couple of decades will be critically important for the Arabs to restore their place in the world.
They should continue their wise policy of being friends to all and enemies to none. They should make full use of their growing agency to achieve their national interests while fiercely protecting their strategic autonomy. They must exploit the opportunities and tackle the challenges provided by the multi-polarizing world. They should continue building indigenous capabilities and diversifying global partnerships.
The Arabs are at a critical crossroads in their history; they must unite and rally behind one common vision for their future and place in the world.
On October 3, the US House of Representatives voted to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, making him the first Speaker of the House in US history to be voted out, and also the one with the shortest tenure. What's crucial is that it marks the deepening division within the Republican Party and the further polarization between the two major political parties in the US.
The state of the US politics is essentially fragmented, with significant changes in the core voter demographics of both parties and the emergence of prominent extremist forces. Within the Republican Party, extreme factions like the Freedom Caucus have gained prominence since the era of Donald Trump. This political fragmentation has led to confusion and internal strife within both parties, as explained by Diao Daming, a professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing. According to Diao, this event is a result of political decline and the failure of governance. Instead of addressing critical issues such as the debt ceiling and government shutdown, both parties prioritized maximizing their internal interests.
Following this turmoil, the space for compromise between the two parties is expected to shrink further. This phenomenon is driven by both technical and strategic reasons, said Yang Xiyu, a senior research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies. Faced with the budget dispute between the two parties, McCarthy made a compromise that did not sit well with the hardliners within his party. His removal essentially prevents future Speakers of the House, who are also leaders of the Republican Party, from following in McCarthy's footsteps.
From a strategic perspective, the divisions between the two parties extend beyond specific budgetary issues to affect US' national development. The different budget proposals put forward by the Democratic and Republican parties reflect their distinct visions for the country. With the turmoil within the Republican Party, it has become increasingly difficult for both parties to reach compromises.
Yang pointed out that this upheaval is not merely about reaching or failing to reach compromises; it fundamentally reflects a disconnect between the current design of the US democratic system and the rapidly changing society. This shift in leadership within the US House of Representatives was triggered by the budget issue, but it is also rooted in the profound divisions between the two parties regarding the direction of the nation. However, the functioning of this political system is becoming increasingly incompatible with the deeply divided American society.
Presently, the US is in a state of political extremism, with both major parties becoming more polarized. As political figures navigate the pressures of Washington, they must continuously rally their constituents. Consequently, voters from both parties are becoming more polarized, further exacerbating the division.
The US had long presented itself as a "beacon of democracy." However, with its domestic political turmoil, this myth has been shattered. This has led to increasing contradictions between the two major driving forces of US foreign policy—American interests and American values. The failure of the American democratic system domestically has raised questions about American values on the international stage. While the US has sought to incorporate these values into its foreign policy and promote them globally, it has also sparked growing conflicts. As a result, the US' international influence has declined, eroding international confidence in the so-called American values.
While EU's trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis urges China to do more to help "reduce the perception of risk," there are multiple signs that bilateral economic ties are embarking on fast-track development. Obviously, the European business community hopes EU's priority is to promote cooperation, rather than "de-risk" its relationship with China.
Amid global uncertainty, European and Chinese senior officials held high-level economic and trade talks on Monday. Despite some disagreements which are continually hyped up by some EU politicians, the high-level trade talks serve as a good opportunity for China and the EU to enhance communication and understanding.
Ahead of the dialogue, some statistics showed German companies continue to invest heavily in China despite calls from a number of German politicians to reduce their exposure in China. Investment in China as a share of Germany's overall investments increased to 16.4 percent in the first half of this year from 11.6 percent in 2022 and 5.1 percent in 2019, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing data from the German Economic Institute, a private economic research institute in Germany.
Germany has been Europe's economic engine for decades. However, persistent inflation has pushed the German economy into a technical recession with data showing that the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2023. Overall, German direct investment outflows dropped sharply, to 63 billion euros ($67 billion) in the first half of 2023 from 104 billion euros in the first half of 2022.
At a time when Europe's largest economy is battling recession, the Chinese economy offers opportunities for German enterprises. That's why in spite of the so-called decoupling or de-risking rhetoric made by some Western officials, European investments continue to pour into China.
It is worth noting that there is a trend that the more open China becomes, the more vigilant the EU has become against China. It is true that economic and trade disputes exist in China-EU relations. The European Commission launched an investigation on September 13 into whether to impose additional tariffs to protect EU producers against cheaper Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports it says are benefiting from the so-called state subsidies. Trade protectionism could be a double-edged sword for bilateral relations, as China is now an important overseas market for European enterprises.
Dombrovskis said in a speech he delivered at Tsinghua University in Beijing on Monday that Europe's economic ties with China are deep, but China "could do a lot to help reduce our perception of risk," according to a Reuters report. The report said the EU has long complained about "a lack of level playing field in China" and "the politicization of the business environment," which is mainly a Western narrative to sow discord and to pressure China to give foreign investors supernational treatment.
As a matter of fact, Europe is the party that adopts protectionist measures to disrupt economic and trade cooperation. China welcomes investment from European countries, but the ball is in the European's court to break down barriers over mutually-beneficial economic cooperation. The best way to help reduce European perception of risk is to put geopolitical thinking aside, stop adopting protectionist measures, fully consider the feelings of European companies, and resolve each other's concerns through dialogue and consultation.
Monday's dialogue, the first in-person meeting post-pandemic, has drawn wide attention. It's impossible to solve each and every problem overnight, especially amid the "decoupling" calls and the instigations by the US, but achievements will add up through frank dialogues and communications, pushing forward China-EU economic ties.
Monday's trade talks won't become the endpoint for both sides to seek common ground and solutions to resolve differences and problems. Future efforts should be made and the European side should take more responsibility, as it is the party bowing to trade protectionism. Whether it can "reduce the perception of risk" depends on Europe's attitude toward trade protectionism.
Airbus is playing a role of "catalyst" in Chinese market for the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, propelling sustainable energy transition in civilian aviation sector to realize decarbonization targets, an executive from Airbus said in Beijing on Tuesday.
Airbus is working on a number of levers, so the first one is technology and fleet renewal. The company is also working actively on improving the efficiency of operations. And the third and very big one is the energy transition of which SAF is a key topic, Julie-Kitcher, Executive Vice President of Airbus said.
The comments are made as more Chinese airlines vowing to promote use of sustainable aviation fuel. In October of last year, Airbus said its Tianjin plant delivered an A320neo to China Eastern Airlines that used five percent SAF as the fuel during its delivery flight.
SAF is a sustainable aviation fuel made from feedstock ranging from used fat, oil and grease to municipal and forestry waste. Compared to fossil jet fuel, SAF has been demonstrated to result in an up to 80 percent reduction in CO2 emissions. Therefore, it is considered as a key enabler to contribute to the de-carbonization of aviation sector. And so when talking about SAF, there's a huge capability in China with feedstock in abundance, technology and innovation and in fact, China has been supporting certification since 2008 in different ways. All the airlines have expressed interest in environmental matters on sustainability, SAF in particular, Kitcher said.
And Airbus is working with China National Aviation Fuel Group Corporation to develop the SAF industry or act as a catalyst in China, she added.
In July of last year, the Airbus Lifecycle Services Center project broke ground in Chengdu, Southwest China's Sichuan Province. The project is Airbus' first aircraft lifecycle service project outside Europe. The company said the project has moved from the planning stage to construction and the aim is for it to enter into service by the end of 2023.
Airbus is spending around 2 billion euros per annum on R&D, which is mainly targeting sustainable aviation. All partners and players will need to make significant investments for their respective licenses to continue to operate. Aircraft manufacturer need to really look at the overall lifecycle of the aircraft, so it's from design, supply chain, the operations, the maintenance, and the end of life recycling, Kitcher said.
To show the conviction in terms of the necessity to decarbonize the sector, Kitcher said that they're working on different levels for the industry, including the technology starting with fleet renewal and enhancing and improving the efficiency of air traffic management operations.
She also said to enhance the energy transition, which means to increase the adoption of SAF, Airbus targets to certify all its aircraft with 100 percent SAF capability by the end of this decade, adding that the company is also developing hydrogen technologies for future use.
Airbus is aiming to reach a global 10 percent target by 2030, which is around 34 million tons of SAF by 2030.Actual demand for probably around 20 million tons are committed. So "we still have progress to make, but we're confident that collectively we can get there", she said.
Travel heat continued to spread nationwide. The number of railway trips made by Chinese passengers is expected to hit 16.40 million on Monday, the fourth day of eight-day-long National Day holiday and the Mid-Autumn Festival.
On October 1, the national railway transported 16.29 million passengers, China Railway, the national railway operator, said on Monday. On October 2, it is estimated that the national railway will transport 16.40 million passengers, with 11,274 passenger trains in operation, including 906 additional trains.
The Yangtze River Delta region is expected to transfer 3.5 million passenger trips, which is about 28 percent more than the same period in 2019, according to media reports.
The 2023 Golden Week started from September 29 to October 6. The 8-day holiday is the longest public holiday of the year.
The Ministry of Culture and Tourism estimated there will be 896 million domestic tourists traveling during the Golden Week holiday, an increase of 86 percent compared to last year. Domestic tourism revenue is expected to reach 782.5 billion yuan ($107.2 billion), up by 138 percent on a yearly basis.
The popularity of scenic spots, urban leisure, rural tourism, and visiting relatives and friends has increased significantly, the ministry said.
Localities on Monday started to release travel statistics for the first three days.
Beijing's major scenic spots received 6.825 million tourists during the first three days of the holiday, up by 60.6 percent year-on-year. Tourism revenue reached 4.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.2 percent year-on-year.
A netizen posted a photo of the Badaling Great Wall in Beijing, saying that it is not exhausting at all climbing the Great Wall, when you only take two steps in three minutes.
Hangzhou, East China's Zhejiang Province, which is hosting the 19th Asian Games, has welcomed a record number of tourists during the holiday. During the first three days, the city welcomed a total of 4.7 million tourists.
Tickets of many popular scenic spots were sold out, with some sold out even before the holiday started.
Tickets for Mount Taishan in East China's Shandong Province were all sold out until Wednesday. Tickets can be booked 14 days in advance. The current daily limit is 80,000 tourists.
A netizen posted a photo of crowds queuing at the entrance of Mount Taishan at 4:30 in the morning, attempting to avoid huge tourist flows.
Mount Huangshan in East China's Anhui Province said in an announcement on Sunday that tickets for Monday have been sold out and advised tourists who failed to buy a ticket to avoid the site. Huangshan welcomed 29,753 tourists alone on Sunday.
A number of museums also announced that they have reached their daily limits.
Sichuan Museum in Chengdu, Southwest China's Sichuan Province, said its reservations have reached daily limit of 10,000 visitors until Wednesday.
The Emperor Qinshihuang's Mausoleum Site Museum in Northwest China's Shaanxi Province was also fully booked until Wednesday, with only few tickets left for Thursday and Friday.
A netizen who visited the museum joked: "Even the terracotta warriors would not have room to stand, if they were not put inside the protection window."
China's Tiangong space station launched the second Tiangong painting exhibition on Saturday, representing a special gift sent by the Shenzhou-15 mission astronauts at the Chinese space station to teenagers across the country during the Chinese New Year's Eve.
With the theme of “Painting a beautiful China, talking about good life,” this year’s exhibition displays 40 paintings from teenagers from 17 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions as well as the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions.
In August 2022, Chinese astronauts Chen Dong, Liu Yang and Cai Xuzhe, who are members of the Shenzhou-14 crew, called on teenagers to send in works for the painting exhibition to be held at China’s space station. The activity received enthusiastic response from schools, parents and teenagers across the country, and more than 3,000 paintings were received from teenagers aged 5 to 18.
On November 29, 2022, the 40 outstanding works that were selected through expert review and online voting were taken with the Shenzhou-15 manned spaceship to enter the Chinese space station.
The works on display at the Chinese space station will return to the ground with the Shenzhou spacecraft later. The organizer will choose the time to hold a ground painting exhibition and invite award-winning teenagers and outstanding instructor representatives to watch the on-site rocket launch and conduct exchanges with astronauts.
The Tiangong painting exhibition has been held for two consecutive sessions so far, with the first held on January 1, 2022.
2022 marked the 30th anniversary of the establishment and implementation of China’s manned spaceflight project and the year when the Chinese space station was fully completed. According to the schedule, there will also be more follow-up offline activities aimed at encouraging teenagers’ interests and enthusiasm in manned spaceflight this year.
China launched its largest solid propellant rocket Lijian-1 on Wednesday, successfully sending 26 satellites into preset orbit and setting the country's new record for launching multiple satellites in one go. The satellites will mainly provide commercial remote sensing information services.
The Wednesday launch marks the second flight of Lijian-1, indicating the maturity of the solid propellant rocket's technology and the continuous improvement of its reliability, which can further boost the commercialization of China's launch vehicles.
In an exclusive interview with the Global Times, chief engineer assistant on Lijian-1 Shi Xiaoning said he was quite confident about the rocket as its reliability has been verified. But he was still concerned about the separation of satellites from the rocket.
"This time, there were more satellites to send and we not only needed to ensure that each of them could be successfully separated, but also ensure the accuracy of the satellite's orbit insertion, which was quite challenging," Shi said. "Therefore, we closely monitored data for each satellite separation, but in the end we accurately delivered each satellite to the designated orbit."
Lijian-1 made its maiden flight on July 27, 2022, successfully sending six satellites into their preset orbits. According to its developer, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the 2.65-meter-diameter and 30-meter-long new rocket is the largest of its kind in China.
It has achieved breakthroughs in six key technologies and utilized 13 domestic technologies for the first time, enriching China's spectrum of solid carrier rocket launch capabilities and making significant contributions to the technological transformation of China's carrier rocket industry.
Lijian-1 is a four-stage launch vehicle weighing 135 tons at launch with a thrust of 200 tons. It is capable of sending payloads of 1,500 kilograms into 500-kilometer Sun-synchronous orbits (SSO). Prior to that, the capacity of Chinese commercial space rockets in SSO was below 1,000 kilograms.
For the next step, the rocket developer Guangzhou Zhongke Aerospace Exploration Technology Co (CAS Space) will continue to enrich the spectrum of China's solid propellant launch vehicles. In addition to building a sea launch platform for Lijian-1, a new solid rocket with a diameter of 3.5 meters is also under development, the Global Times has learned.
The future of disease tracking is going down the drain — literally. Flushed with success over detecting coronavirus in wastewater, and even specific variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, researchers are now eyeing our collective poop to monitor a wide variety of health threats.
Before the pandemic, wastewater surveillance was a smaller field, primarily focused on testing for drugs or mapping microbial ecosystems. But these researchers were tracking specific health threats in specific places — opioids in parts of Arizona, polio in Israel — and hadn’t quite realized the potential for national or global public health. Then COVID-19 hit.
The pandemic triggered an “incredible acceleration” of wastewater science, says Adam Gushgari, an environmental engineer who before 2020 worked on testing wastewater for opioids. He now develops a range of wastewater surveillance projects for Eurofins Scientific, a global laboratory testing and research company headquartered in Luxembourg.
A subfield that was once a few handfuls of specialists has grown into more than enough scientists to pack a stadium, he says. And they come from a wide variety of fields — environmental science, analytical chemistry, microbiology, epidemiology and more — all collaborating to track the coronavirus, interpret the data and communicate results to the public. With other methods of monitoring COVID-19 on the decline, wastewater surveillance has become one of health experts’ primary sources for spotting new surges.
Hundreds of wastewater treatment plants across the United States are now part of COVID-19 testing programs, sending their data to the National Wastewater Surveillance System, or NWSS, a monitoring program launched in fall 2020 by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Hundreds more such testing programs have launched globally, as tracked by the COVIDPoops19 dashboard run by researchers at the University of California, Merced.
In the last year, wastewater scientists have started to consider what else could be tracked through this new infrastructure. They’re looking at seasonal diseases like the flu, recently emerging diseases like bird flu and mpox, formerly called monkeypox, as well as drug-resistant pathogens like the fungus Candida auris. The scientists are even considering how to identify entirely new threats.
Wastewater surveillance will have health impacts “far broader than COVID,” predicts Amy Kirby, a health scientist at the CDC who leads NWSS.
But there are challenges getting from promise to possible. So far, such sewage surveillance has been mostly a proof of concept, confirming data from other tracking systems. Experts are still determining how data from our poop can actually inform policy; that’s true even for COVID-19, now the poster child for this monitoring. And they face public officials wary of its value and questions over whether, now that COVID-19 health emergencies have ended, the pipeline of funding will be cut off.
This monitoring will hopefully become “one of the technologies that really evolves post-pandemic to be here to stay,” says Mariana Matus, cofounder of Biobot Analytics, a company based in Cambridge, Mass., that has tested sewage for the CDC and many other health agencies. But for that to happen, the technology needs continued buy-in from governments, research institutions and the public, Matus and other scientists say.
How wastewater testing works Wastewater-based epidemiology has a long history, tracing back at least to physician John Snow’s 1850s observations that cholera outbreaks in London were connected to contaminated water. In the 1920s and ’30s, scientists began to take samples from sewage and study them in the lab, learning to isolate specific pathogens that cause disease. These early researchers focused on diseases that spread through contaminated water, such as polio and typhoid.
Today, automated machines typically retrieve sewage samples. The machines used to collect waste beneath maintenance hole covers are “like R2-D2 in terms of size” or smaller, says Erin Driver, an environmental engineer at Arizona State University in Tempe who works on collection methods.
Driver can plug this machine, or a larger version used for sampling at wastewater treatment plants, into a water pipe and program it to pull a small amount of sewage into an empty bottle at regular intervals, say, once an hour for 24 hours. She and colleagues are developing smaller versions of the automated sampler that could be better suited for more targeted sampling.
What happens in the lab to that bottle of waste depends on what scientists are testing for. To test for opioids and other chemicals, scientists might filter large particles out of the sample with a vacuum system, extract the specific chemicals that they want to test, then run the results through a spectrometer, an instrument that measures chemical concentrations by analyzing the light the chemicals give off.
To determine levels of SARS-CoV-2 or another virus, a scientist might separate liquid waste from solid waste with a centrifuge, isolate viral genetic material, and then test the results with a PCR machine, similar to testing someone’s nose swab. Or, if scientists want to know which SARS-CoV-2 variants are present, they can put the material through a machine that identifies a variety of genetic sequences.
Would the coronavirus even show up in waste? In the panicked early days of the pandemic, an urgent basic question loomed. “Will this even work?” remembers Marlene Wolfe, an environmental microbiologist at Emory University in Atlanta. While polio is spread through fecal matter, there were early hints that the coronavirus mostly spreads through the air; scientists initially weren’t even sure that it would show up in sewage.
On the same day in 2020 that the San Francisco Bay Area went on lockdown, Wolfe and colleagues at Stanford University, where she was based at the time, got a grant to find out. The team was soon spending hours driving around the Bay Area to collect sewage samples, “navigating lockdown rules” and negotiating special permissions to use lab space, she says.
“We were anxiously waiting to see if our first samples would show a positive result for SARS-CoV-2,” Wolfe says.
Not only did the sewage samples test positive, Wolfe and her colleagues found that coronavirus levels in the Bay Area’s wastewater followed the same trends as reported cases, the team reported in December 2020 in Environmental Science & Technology. When case counts went up, more virus appeared in the sewage, and vice versa. Early projects in other parts of the country showed similar results. More than three years later, data on reported cases have become much less reliable. Fewer people are seeking out lab-based PCR tests in favor of easier-to-access at-home tests — with results often not reported. Wastewater trends have become the best proxy to provide early warnings of potential new COVID-19 surges, such as the increased spread this summer, to health officials and the public alike.
Opening the tracking floodgates In summer 2022, wastewater tracking got a new chance to prove itself. Mpox was rapidly spreading globally, including in the United States. But tests were limited, and the disease, which was spreading primarily through intimate contact between men, quickly drew social stigma, leading some people to hesitate in seeking medical care.
Within a few weeks of the start of the U.S. outbreak, Wolfe and her colleagues, as well as research teams at Biobot and other companies, had developed tests to identify mpox in sewage.
Just as scientists had seen with COVID-19, mpox trends in wastewater matched trends in official case numbers. In California, wastewater results even suggested that the disease may have spread farther than data from doctors’ offices suggested, Wolfe and collaborators reported in February in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Like COVID-19, mpox doesn’t transmit through the water, but sewage testing still picked up the virus. The early results from that summer outbreak convinced some health officials that wastewater technology could be used for many diseases, no matter how they spread, Matus says. Scientists are starting to find more and more infectious diseases that can be tracked in sewage. “Honestly, everything that we’ve tried so far has worked,” says Wolfe, who is now a principal investigator of WastewaterSCAN, a national sewage testing project led by researchers at Stanford and Emory. The project team currently tests samples for six different viruses and is working on other tests that it can send out to the more than 150 sites in its monitoring network.
Through an informal literature review of pathogens important for public health, scientists at Biobot found that previous research had identified 76 out of 80 of them in wastewater, stool or urine, suggesting that those pathogens could be monitored through sewage. The list ranges from the chicken pox virus to the microbes that cause sexually transmitted diseases like chlamydia to the tickborne bacteria that cause Lyme disease.
Finding focus With this much opportunity, the question on many researchers’ minds is not, “What can we test for?” but “What should we test for?”
In January, a report put out by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine came up with three criteria. The pathogen should threaten public health. It should be detectable in wastewater. And it should generate data that public health agencies can use to protect their communities.
Given all the threats and hints of what can be found in wastewater, the first two criteria don’t narrow the field too much. So for now, researchers are taking cues from state and local public health officials on which pathogens to prioritize.
Biobot is working on tests for common diseases like the flu, RSV, hepatitis C and gonorrhea. And the CDC has its eye on some of the same common pathogens, as well as strategies for tracking antimicrobial resistance, a threat that has increased during the pandemic as health systems have been under strain.
Even if they choose the perfect targets, though, researchers also have to figure out how to generate useful data. For now, that’s a sticking point.
How to use the data Tracking pathogens is one thing. But determining how the results correspond to actual numbers of sick people is another, even in the case of COVID-19, where researchers now have years of detailed data. As a result, many public health officials aren’t yet ready to make policy decisions based on poop data.
In New York City over the last three years, for example, the local government has poured more than $1 million into testing for COVID-19, mpox and polio in sewage from the city’s water treatment plants. But the city’s health department hasn’t been using the resulting data to inform local COVID-19 safety measures, so it’s unclear what’s being done with the data. Health officials are used to one swab per person, says Rachel Poretsky, a microbiologist at the University of Illinois Chicago. She also heads wastewater monitoring for the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois.
Public health training relies on identifying individual sick people and tracing how they became ill. But in wastewater surveillance, one data point could represent thousands of sick people — and the data come from the environment, rather than from hospitals and health clinics. What to do next when positive results turn up isn’t as obvious.
Numbers collected from the health care system always represent patients, so a spike indicates a surge in cases. In the case of sewage data, however, environmental factors like weather, local industries and the coming and going of tourists also can create “weird outliers” that resist easy interpretation, Poretsky says. For instance, a massive rainstorm might dilute samples, or chemical runoff from a factory might interfere with a research team’s analytical methods.
Data interpretation only gets more complicated when scientists begin testing wastewater for an increasing number of health threats. Every pathogen’s data need to be interpreted differently.
With coronavirus data, for example, wastewater tests consistently come back positive, so interpreting the data is all about looking for trends: Are viral concentrations going up or down? How does the amount of virus present compare with the past? A spike in a particular location might signal a surge in the community that hasn’t yet been picked up by the health care system. The community might respond by boosting health resources, such as opening vaccine clinics, handing out free masks and at-home tests, or adding staff to local hospital emergency departments.
Mpox, on the other hand, has infected far fewer people, and positive tests have been rare after last summer’s outbreaks ended. Now, researchers are simply watching to see whether the virus is present or absent in a given sewershed.
“It’s more about having an early warning,” Matus says. If a sewershed suddenly tests positive for mpox after negative results for the last few months, health officials might alert local doctors and community organizations to look out for anyone with symptoms, aiming to identify any cases and prevent a potential outbreak.
Another complicated pathogen is C. auris, a fungus that has developed resistance to common drugs. It can spread rapidly in health care settings — and be detected in sewage. Researchers from Utah and Nevada reported in February in Emerging Infectious Diseases that it was possible to track C. auris in the sewage from areas experiencing outbreaks.
If hospitals or health officials could identify the presence of this fungus early, that information could guide public health actions to curb outbreaks, says Alessandro Rossi, a microbiologist at the Utah Public Health Laboratory in Salt Lake City. But interpreting the warnings isn’t as clear-cut for C. auris as for viruses.
The fungus can grow in sewage after it leaves health care facilities, Rossi says. The pathogen has “the potential to replicate, form biofilms and colonize a sewershed.” In other words, C. auris can create its own data interference, potentially making wastewater results seem worse than they really are. Moving wastewater into the future Most current testing programs are reactive. By looking at health threats one at a time using specific PCR tests, the programs mostly confirm that pathogens we already are worrying about are getting people sick.
But some scientists, like Wim Meijer, envision a future in which wastewater monitoring wades into the unknown and alerts us to unusual disease outbreaks. The microbiologist, of the University College Dublin, heads Ireland’s wastewater surveillance program. Ideally, in this ahead-of-the-curve future, after detecting something alarming in sewage, his team could closely collaborate with health officials to study the pathogen and, if necessary, start combating the threat.
One idea for turning the tech proactive is to prepare for new health threats that we can see coming. For example, Meijer and his colleagues are interested in screening Ireland’s sewage for the H5N1 bird flu, but they are not yet doing this testing.
Another approach takes advantage of genetic testing technology to look at everything in our waste. Kartik Chandran, an environmental engineer at Columbia University who has mapped sewers’ microbial ecosystems with this technique, describes it as “trying to shine the light more broadly” rather than looking where the light is already shining brightest.
Such an approach might identify new pathogens before sick people start going to the doctor’s office, potentially leading to an earlier public health response. But with health officials still unsure of how best to use wastewater data, much more basic research is needed first. “People think wastewater surveillance is the answer to everything, and clearly that’s not true,” says Kirby, of the CDC, reflecting concerns from the state and local officials that she collaborates with at NWSS. Before diving ahead into proactive surveillance, Kirby and her colleagues are working to set up basic wastewater standards and protocols for health agencies. Priorities include evaluating how sewage trends correlate to cases for different pathogens and developing standards for how to use the data.
The wastewater surveillance field also needs to keep growing if the goal is to monitor and contribute to global health, with more sites contributing data and more scientists to analyze it. All of this work requires sustained funding.
The CDC’s program so far has been funded by COVID-era legislation and will run out of money in 2025. While wastewater surveillance is more cost-effective than other types of testing, it still requires a lot of resources. Washington’s state health department, for example, paid Biobot more than $500,000 for a one-year sewage testing contract, while the CDC has paid the company more than $23 million since 2020 for its work with NWSS.
For the last few years, wastewater surveillance has been a giant, messy group project. Scientists have collaborated across fields and locations, across private and public institutions, through Zoom calls and through poop samples shipped on ice. They’ve shown that waste might hold the key to a new way of tracking our collective health.
A lot of unanswered questions remain, and it could be some time before your local sewer can tell you exactly what disease risks you might be facing. But COVID-19 pushed thousands of experts to look into their toilets and start asking those questions. “Now, everyone’s a believer,” says Driver, of ASU. “Everyone’s doing the work.”
