Arab world sees multi-alignment as the norm

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Arab region and world are already in the post-West and post-US era. The world order has been rapidly changing and multipolarity is becoming more and more a reality.

The rising power and growing influence of the developing nations, spearheaded by China, are shifting the world's center of gravity to the East and the South. The recent BRICS and G20 summits have amplified the voice of the Global Majority, more visibly showing the global power redistribution. The final communiques of both summits have reinforced the perception that no one single country or bloc of countries can dictate the terms of global consensus. Although the two summits' communiques used different terms, they both acknowledged the need to reform the global governance architecture, including Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and allow a larger representation for marginalized regions such as Africa. In both declarations, the Global South's perspective on the Ukraine conflict has prevailed. 

Because of this grand rebalancing, the African Union (AU) has been added as a permanent member of the G20. This is also one important reason BRICS has been expanded to include additional six countries, three of which are from the Arab world.  Just as the G20 expansion is not against anybody, but an attempt to make the grouping more representative of current global realities, the BRICS expansion is not against anybody, but an attempt to create more momentum behind the efforts to reform the global governance system so that it is more inclusive, equitable and democratic.

The Arabs are demonstrating their strategic autonomy by joining various partnerships established by seemingly opposing camps in the current intensifying great power rivalry. The Arab nations are joining BRICS, the Global South's leading platform, while simultaneously partnering with the West on India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a project that has been announced recently on G20 sidelines. Just as the Arabs' decision to join BRICS was not aimed against the West, but was based on national strategic objectives, their recent decision to sign Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the IMEC was not aimed against China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  

There is an important difference between the BRI and the IMEC. The IMEC is an idea that is still being explored; it does not have concretely defined national commitments, scope, capital requirements and roles. On the other hand, the BRI is a mature program, which has proven its worth, bringing tangible benefits to its participants. The BRI is regaining momentum, thanks to serious contributions from China and its committed BRI partners; many BRI summits and events are held this year to mark the initiative's 10th anniversary. Regardless of who initiated them and how they will evolve in the future, the BRI and IMEC should be celebrated, not politicized or weaponized, because they are meant to enhance connectivity and facilitate global trade. How much positive impact they generate should be the only criterion for assessing those initiatives.

Multi-alignment and minilateralism are becoming the norm in the current fast-changing world. It is unwise to narrow-mindedly define the world in binary terms, "democracy versus authoritarianism" or "the West versus the rest". In the current fluid world order, most of the world, including the Arab region, is open to all kinds of partnerships and platforms that can serve their interests. India, for example, is an important member of BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO); at the same time, it is a member of the Quad, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD). Last August, India, Brazil and South Africa, the three "democratic members" of the BRICS, participated in the BRICS summit, which included China and Russia; less than three weeks later, the same three countries had a joint meeting with the US during the G20 summit.  

The Arabs do not view their relations through an ideological prism; they are pragmatic, seeking partnerships based on mutual trust, respect, and benefit. The world is quickly adjusting to the reality that no one single country or bloc of countries can dictate the terms of multilateral partnerships and global governance. The Arabs are already adapting their regional and international behavior to this reality; no external pressure can change this fact.

The Arabs are joining different groups and platforms as equal partners, not as subordinates. Throughout their history and by virtue of their central geography, the Arabs have thrived on establishing relations with various regions and economic centers.  Just like the Chinese, the Arabs are people of trade; they have been trading with each other and with others for thousands of years. As traders, it is natural and imperative for their success to build trust and win-win relations with the world. It is no wonder Arab-China trade is breaking records; last year, it reached more than $400 billion.

The global stage is becoming less welcoming to those who want to bring back hegemony and force others into subordinate positions. Those who think they should have superiority to all others economically, politically, culturally or otherwise, are using outdated mental models of a bygone era. Their sense of insecurity and lack of confidence about their own place in the world are pushing them to view their relations with others through the destructive zero-sum perspective. However, time, history, demographics and numbers are on the side of those who are working toward a multipolar world and those who are creating a multipolar Middle East. The two evolving orders are positively reinforcing each other.  

The Arab world is going through a transition period, steered primarily by the Arabs themselves.  The changes happening in the Arab world today do not represent a turning point or an abrupt regional transformation; it is an expected phase of an organic evolution. The region has been evolving since the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire, passing through European imperialism, surviving the US hegemony, and now arriving at a crucial historic juncture.

Just like the Chinese, Africans, Indians, Russians and most other peoples, the Arabs prefer a world that is multipolar where multilateralism can thrive, and unilateralism can be restricted. The Arabs are too wise and too strategic to pick sides; their neutral position on the Ukraine conflict and their positively expanding partnerships with different power centers illustrate their sophisticated understanding of the current tectonic power shifts. 

The Arabs recognize that this is the era of active diplomacy and dynamic partnerships.  For them, the world is becoming more complex, requiring agility and versatility; there is no place for binary or black-and-white thinking. After twenty years of wars and conflicts imposed on the region, the Arabs are regaining self-confidence and working strategically to secure their future in the emerging new world. They have developed enough human capital and technocratic capacity to be able to manage the delicate transition. The next couple of decades will be critically important for the Arabs to restore their place in the world. 

They should continue their wise policy of being friends to all and enemies to none.  They should make full use of their growing agency to achieve their national interests while fiercely protecting their strategic autonomy. They must exploit the opportunities and tackle the challenges provided by the multi-polarizing world. They should continue building indigenous capabilities and diversifying global partnerships.

The Arabs are at a critical crossroads in their history; they must unite and rally behind one common vision for their future and place in the world.